Starting just a few years back, as the number of consumer electronics with high energy density lithium batteries began to skyrocket, a serious and growing concern regarding spontaneous combustion causing fires on airplanes became a priority in regards to making new regulations.
The question of whether it’s actually dangerous or not, is a moot point, as we have no control what the IATA/ICAO committees decide.
The noose has slowly tightened and it will be tightening even further as of January 1st, 2015, when IATO/ICAO regulations mandate that lithium metal batteries will be prohibited from being shipped loosely (eg, not in the product they power).
From the official DHL website:
Following an IATA/ICAO decision to ban loose Lithium Metal batteries on passenger aircraft as from January 2015, DHL Express is likewise unable to accept these batteries on its network. The IATA /ICAO regulation applies to loosely packed Lithium Metal batteries adhering to Section II, PI-968 while Lithium Metal batteries packed with equipment (PI-969) or contained in equipment (PI-970) are acceptable for transport as before. There is no change to the regulations for Lithium Ion batteries.
The keywords for those of us interested in receiving extra batteries for our China mobiles is “metal” and “ion”. Currently, the batteries in our China mobiles are lithium-ion, which means that this new mandate should not effect our receiving extra batteries.
Note, I said “should not”. Already in many parts of Thailand, they are refusing to ship lithium-ion electronics with the battery inside the unit, let alone the lithium-ion battery loose. 
This is likely due to their misinterpretation of current mandates, or an executive decision by EMS fueled by the need for a cut-and-dry standard for employees to follow. In other words, “if it’s got a battery in it, it can’t be shipped” is a much easier to follow standard, than making sure employees are trained to check battery type and to make sure shippable lithium battery electronics are packaged and labeled correctly.
Recently I was prohibited from sending a phone back to China at Thai post, but when going up the street to FedEx, it was no problem.
It seems for 2015 we will still be able to receive our mobiles and extra batteries (at least by courier, EMS/standard post may be another problem all together), but things are getting tougher year by year and there may come a time when buying locally is our only option.
I don’t see a complete ban happening, as the mail-order electronics business is just too huge to shut down entirely, but I wouldn’t put a complete ban out of the realm of possibility. Let’s hope this doesn’t come to pass.
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